And "How Far We Yet Will Go!"

If you have a nice stable cable modem connection, or a DSL connection, you're probably in Internet heaven. Today, either of those connection methods make downloading even large application or multimedia files a trivial exercise; you routinely do things that just weren't feasible over slower modems. (Indeed, when all we had were "slow" modems, we never imagined some of the things that broadband connections have enabled.)

But remember that today's DSL and cable modem speeds (around 400 kilobits/second to 10 megabits/second) are not an end-game. They're simply today's steps along the bandwidth road, like the 2400 and 9600 and 56,000 bits/second modems before them. Where might this go? Everest Connections, in St. Louis, plans to bring 40 megabits/second to trial in Kansas City, next year, at contemporary cable modem prices!

Brought to our attention by reader Alan Maltzman, the Nov. 20 NetworkWorldFusion News (http://www.nwfusion.com/news/2000/1120carrier.html) describes how Advent Networks' "Ultraband" technology runs over hybrid fiber-coax cable systems, providing 40 megabits/second switched Ethernet service (which means non-shared, guaranteed bandwidth between the provider and each customer -- that way, no matter how many kids get home at 3pm and suck at the cable pipe, each user should still have their expected bandwidth -- at least until the ISP's pipe to the Internet fills up.)

But wait a moment -- do we REALLY need 40 megabits/second? How could we possibly consume such a glut of bandwidth? I mean, really, we don't yet have contemporary broadband to most homes and offices -- who needs more?

Rather than talk about specifics such as very high quality TV-on-demand, remote application hosting, distributing a full CD-ROM worth of software in a few seconds, and the like, remember that EXACTLY those questions have been posed at EVERY step along the bandwidth pike.

I remember when 9600 bits/second modems first came on the scene -- for the first time, my VT100 (text terminal) screen filled with is 1,920 characters in the blink of an eye -- far faster than I could read the text. I couldn't imagine needing anything faster. Even if faster modems were possible (improbable), they wouldn't serve any useful purpose! Of course, all it took was the introduction of rich, non-text information, and the rules of the desired-bandwidth game changed. (Advent has an interesting Flash demonstration of the relative value of dial-up, traditional ("traditional!?!") cable modems, and UltraBand speeds, at http://www.adventnetworks.com/1.htm .)

I suggest that the bandwidth rules will change again (and again), whether by Advent's technology or some other! I believe it will be driven by our always figuring out ways to consume all of the bandwidth, processor power, and storage space that we have. If you don't think so, I challenge you to be happy using the technologies of ten, or even five years ago. Forty megabits/second? Bring it on -- while we wonder what will be next!

This is an excerpt from the "Rapidly Changing Face of Computing, " a free weekly multimedia technology journal written by Jeffrey R. Harrow, Principal Member of Technical Staff for the Corporate Strategy group at Compaq. A more extensive version of this discussion, as well as others around the innovations and trends of contemporary computing and the technologies that drive them, are available at http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc . Jeff's opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Compaq. The RCFoC is a service of, and Copyright 2000, Compaq Computer Corp."