What Might Tomorrow Bring?

That, of course, is a perennial question, when it comes to something moving as fast as technology. And while crystal balls are always of necessity somewhat cloudy, it's interesting to occasionally kick back and explore where the experts expect things to go. This view, though, isn't directly about technology per se -- it's about what the results of various technologies' explosive growth are likely to mean to how we work, live, and play. And those are the most interesting results of innovation, after all...

The March 9 CNET put this question to several high-profile research labs, including MIT's Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Belgium's Starlab, and the famed Xerox PARC. Collectively, they feel that by the end of this year, toy robots such as the Sony Aibo that we explored at COMDEX (http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc/20001127.html#_Toc499300003) will be all the rage. And just about any toy or appliance that might benefit from being able to "talk," will do so. (Playrooms may become
even noisier...) Also, we might (finally) find the first practical attempts at a "Rosie the Robot" home cleaning robot, while "smart clothing" might warn us if we leave the office without our car keys!

Voice will see a resurgence over the next few years, with keyboard-driven chat rooms and online support services using Voice Over IP (VoIP) to remove the impersonal keyboard and text element, according to the March 19 Fortune (http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=200846
&page=1&_DARGS=%2Fartcol.jhtml.2_A&_DAV=artcol.jhtml). And "privacy" may become a thing of the past, with a great deal of our business and personal information becoming available (internationally or otherwise) over the Web.

(Indeed, the recent posting of an ICQ chat log allegedly detailing conversations between a company's CEO and his top executives, has resulted in wholesale resignations and significant corporate
problems. Don't EVER assume that unencrypted communications of any sort on the Internet are secure, or that an off-hand comment will "go away." Someone may well be able to dredge it up for all to see - http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1005-200-5148422.html).

By the end of 2005, the research labs expect that Web-controlled robotic cleaning devices will be affordably priced, and will begin to become common. Biology and electronics will continue to come together to allow prosthetic limbs to be directly controlled by the brain, and we may gain the ability to transplant additional organs, such as eyes.

(Don't think this is possible? Reader Don McArthur points us to preliminary experiments at Northwestern University, where a lamprey's brain tissue and been fused with electronics to create an
experimental cyborg -- it guides itself towards a flashing light, and can "learn"! See
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/nation/A24800-2001Apr16.html .)

And remember those toys and appliances that we just noted will soon begin to speak? By 2006, they'll begin to listen to what we have to say -- not so much to the words, but to our emotions -- and then react accordingly.

By the end of 2010, we'll see C-3PO-like "advanced personal robots," and the groundbreaking robot-assisted surgery of today will become common. Continuing work on the human genome, and on tiny chips that dramatically improve gene and drug research, will lead to sophisticated home testing kits, and to medicine specifically created for our individual bodies, targeted directly toward exactly what ails us. And digital art, displayed on larger displays, will become common (extending a contemporary experiment in huge displays, at http://www.parc.xerox.com/red/projects/xfr/readingwall.html).

Finally, in the unimaginably distant year of 2050, these experts believe that we'll "have precise digital control of cells," and biologically-grown robotic add-ons will be available as "upgrades" to "Human, V1.0." Nanotechnology will be moving forward nicely, with billionth-of-a-meter machines beginning to do our bidding. With both good and with troubling implications, they expect that "genetic engineering will take hold; expect the creation and replication of creatures large and small."

Details begin at (http://www.cnet.com/techtrends/0-6014-8-4962347-1.html).

Of course, this is a very high-level overview of the things that these folks expect will escape from the research labs, into our society. In some cases, we've heard similar predictions before (the household
cleaning robot, to point.) But given the rate of technology growth, and the fact that each year's technology builds on the shoulders of the growth before it, fascinating things, even if different from these predictions, are sure to emerge.

This is an excerpt from the "Rapidly Changing Face of Computing, " a free weekly multimedia technology journal written by Jeffrey R. Harrow, Principal Member of Technical Staff for the Corporate Strategy group at Compaq. A more extensive version of this discussion, as well as others around the innovations and trends of contemporary computing and the technologies that drive them, are available at http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc . Jeff's opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Compaq. The RCFoC is a service of, and Copyright 2000, Compaq Computer Corp."